Crehan Research: 400GbE to Drive the Majority of Data Center Ethernet Switch Bandwidth Within Five Years

"Beginning with high-density 100GbE systems, we entered a new era of much faster data center switch upgrades, and that trend is predicted to continue with 400GbE," said Seamus Crehan, President of Crehan Research.

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400 gigabit Ethernet (GbE) switches will see initial shipments this year and will grow exponentially, predicts Crehan Research. It would drive the majority of data center Ethernet switch bandwidth by 2022. 

In addition to a strong ramp of 400GbE, the Crehan Research report predicts that:

  • 400GbE data center switches will offer a bandwidth discount over lower speed switches during the initial year of shipments
  • 400GbE adoption will be further bolstered by the arrival of 100G-PAM4 SerDes, likely in the 2020 timeframe, thus reducing the number of lanes required to achieve 400GbE by half – from 8*50 to 4*100 – and further lessening the cost and power of these data center switches
  • 100GbE shipments will surpass 40GbE shipments during 2018, just three years after the initial shipments of high-density 100GbE data center switch systems
  • The overall market average selling price per port for data center switching will remain relatively stable, driven by the adoption of higher-speed switches

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400Gbe

“Beginning with high-density 100GbE systems, we entered a new era of much faster data center switch upgrades, and that trend is predicted to continue with 400GbE,” said Seamus Crehan, President of Crehan Research. “With its expected market-leading price per gigabit and no foreseeable shortage of demand for higher-speed networking capacity in cloud data centers, 400GbE should surpass a million ports shipped in less time than it took 100GbE to reach that threshold.”

Crehan Research Inc. specializes in statistics, analysis, and insights for data center switch, server, and storage networking. Founder and President of Crehan Research is Seamus Crehan. Prior to Crehan Research, Seamus ran various switch and adapter market research programs at Dell’Oro Group for ten consecutive years, where he last served as vice president.